Environmental Risk Assessment of Wetland Ecosystems Using Bayesian Belief Networks

Wetlands are valuable natural capital and sensitive ecosystems facing significant risks from anthropogenic climatic stressors. An assessment of the environmental risk levels for wetlands’ dynamic can provide a better understanding their current ecosystem health functions. Different defined by considering categories probability severity each in environment. Determining provides general overview function. This mechanism increases visibility values three distinct states (i.e., low, moderate, high) associated with The Bayesian belief network (BBN) is novel tool determining monitoring effectiveness planning management measures reducing risk. study develops robust methodological framework overall level based on combination varied factors using BBN model. proposed model adopted case Shadegan International (SIWs), which consist series Ramsar wetlands southwest Iran international ecological significance. A comprehensive list parameters variables contributing to relationships were identified through review literature expert judgment develop an influence diagram. location filling distribution tables. SIWs determined results obtained at output node BBN. sensitivity analysis performed We model-informed strategies wetland control. According results, under threat high Prolonged drought has been as primary contributor SIWs’ levels.